South Korea’s martial law kerfuffle and RMB softness
Limited market impact from Korea’s martial law.
Group Research - Econs, Chang Wei Liang4 Dec 2024
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South Korea’s President Yoon declared martial law last night, prompting a surge in USD/KRW towards 1440 before the National Assembly voted unanimously to reject it.  The Korean authorities have said that financial markets will open as normal today and that unlimited liquidity will be provided until markets normalize, with the Bank of Korea scheduling an emergency meeting this morning.  President Yoon’s decision to invoke martial law is reportedly linked to a breakdown in relations with the opposition-led National Assembly and his decision was not supported by his own party leaders. With the revocation of martial law and possible BOK intervention, we expect the KRW to recover its losses and the impact on Korean equities, while negative, should be contained. Korea’s fractious political environment and resultant policy paralysis do not help sentiment, which will weigh on growth and foreign equity inflows even after the end of martial law.

USD/JPY dipped below 149 briefly on risk reduction after the shock from Korea’s martial law, but it had since recovered to mid-149. Since mid-November, USD/JPY had been weighed by a decline in US 10y yields, on top of speculation that the BoJ could hike rates again on 19 Dec, following higher-than-expected Tokyo inflation for Nov. PM Ishiba is also seeking parliamentary approval for a JPY13.9trn (USD92bn) additional budget, which is larger than last year’s JPY13.2trn plan and could support growth and BOJ’s confidence that its forecasts will be realized. Nevertheless, USD/JPY could rebound above 150 if US rates were to bump up, with markets keenly watching US ISM today and non-farm payrolls on Friday.

RMB had softened, with USD/CNH bumping towards 7.30 after China and the US traded blows over export controls. China announced yesterday that it will ban exports of gallium, germanium and antimony to the US given their “dual use” for military purposes, after the US imposed a third round of semiconductor export curbs to China, which include chipmaking equipment made in countries such as Singapore and Malaysia. While the Chinese authorities have been leaning actively against RMB depreciation by holding the USD/CNY daily fixing below 7.20 for the last three weeks, a resurgence of trade tensions with the US would raise market jitters.

Chang Wei Liang

FX & Credit Strategist
[email protected]





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December 4 in history
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