RMB stability endures while JPY rises on possible BOJ hike
Policy support for RMB and JPY.
Group Research - Econs, Chang Wei Liang22 Nov 2024
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Despite heightened uncertainty from possible Trump tariffs, the RMB is still firmly anchored by policy. PBOC has kept the USD/CNY fixing at around 7.19 since last Tuesday, even as RMB depreciation pressures gradually picked up in the offshore market. USD/CNH is bumping towards mid-7.25 amid broad USD strength and continuous outflows from US-listed China ETFs following Trump’s election win. However, the size of outflows remains relatively moderate at just USD3.4bn so far, and CNH performance since US elections is right in the middle amongst Asian peers.  We continue to expect China to maintain RMB stability in view of an already undervalued RMB, and the need to limit financial risks.

USD/JPY eased back towards 154 yesterday after BOJ Governor Ueda commented that it is impossible to predict the outcome of the Dec policy meeting. Thus, the Dec policy is still live with a chance of a rate hike. Ueda also said that BOJ will seriously assess the impact of exchange rates on inflation and the economy. While not a new comment, it underscores the fact that extended JPY weakness may bring forward a BOJ rate hike. We see JPY weakness as being quite excessive, and Ueda’s rhetoric could help rein in speculative JPY shorts.

PMIs from the Eurozone and the US are both due today, and signs of wider divergence in activity between the two could weigh on EUR/USD.  The cross has already fallen below the psychological 1.05 level amid higher US yields, as well as geopolitical tensions from an escalation in missile attacks between Ukraine and Russia. Furthermore, ECB’s Villeroy had commented yesterday that potential trade tariffs from Trump shouldn’t pose a risk for Eurozone inflation, and that the ECB should continue to cut rates to support eurozone business. Business confidence in France is particularly uncertain given difficulties in passing the budget. RN’s Le Pen had threatened a no-confidence vote against Premier Barnier’s government over proposed tax hikes, which is a serious risk given a lack of support from the left as well.

Chang Wei Liang

FX & Credit Strategist
[email protected]


 
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     John F. Kennedy

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