India rates: RBI MPC minutes signal preference to tread carefully
Dialling down to neutral stance.
Group Research - Econs, Radhika Rao24 Oct 2024
Article image
Photo credit: Unsplash/Adobe Stock Photo
Read More

Minutes from the RBI monetary policy committee (MPC) October review highlighted the trade-off between the evolving inflation-growth path. The MPC had voted 5:1 to keep the repo rate on hold at 6.5%, but the stance was dialled down to ‘neutral’ from a hawkish ‘withdrawal of accommodation’ earlier. The dissent vote, cast by the one of the new external MPC members Nagesh Kumar, was backed by concern over flagging domestic and global demand, and resultant weak visibility hampering private investments. With anchored inflationary expectations, the member saw this as an opportune time for the MPC to kickstart rate normalisation. Commentary from the other members suggested that the change to neutral was backed by pockets of weakness in higher frequency indicators and an intention to lower the degree of policy restraint. Above target inflation, however, did not allow them room to kickstart rate cuts as yet. They saw the need for a data-dependent approach, remaining nimble to evolving risks. It was also stressed that there were risks associated with easing rates in haste. Overall, the minutes reflected the members’ optimism on growth, notwithstanding cracks in recent data releases, with inflation viewed a bigger bother at this juncture. 

October inflation release (in mid-Nov), strength of festive demand and 2QFY GDP (out late-Nov) will be crucial inputs for December’s meeting. Incoming trends point to an elevated Oct inflation in the 5.7-6% range, with the likelihood of a sub-7% print on growth for Jul-Sep. While the RBI had expected a temporary inflation increase in 3QFY, the scale has been higher than projected. These conditions lower the odds of a rate cut in December, delaying the start of cuts to February 2025. The Governor and Deputy Governor’s current term ends in December and mid-January respectively. Financial markets have been gripped by the recent dollar upmove, which has kept USDINR above 84.00 and in the middle of the year-to-date AXJ performance ladder. Portfolio rebalancing move by foreign visitors has triggered a hefty $9bn outflow from Indian equities this month, keeping benchmarks in red. Looming US elections and markets pricing out aggressive Fed rate cut bets are likely to keep the rupee and INR bonds on soft ground.

Radhika Rao

Senior Economist – Eurozone, India, Indonesia
[email protected]



Subscribe here to receive our economics & macro strategy materials.
To unsubscribe, please click here.

Topic

GENERAL DISCLOSURE/ DISCLAIMER (For Macroeconomics, Currencies, Interest Rates)

GENERAL DISCLOSURE/ DISCLAIMER (For Macroeconomics, Currencies, Interest Rates)

The information herein is published by DBS Bank Ltd and/or DBS Bank (Hong Kong) Limited (each and/or collectively, the “Company”). It is based on information obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but the Company does not make any representation or warranty, express or implied, as to its accuracy, completeness, timeliness or correctness for any particular purpose. Opinions expressed are subject to change without notice. This research is prepared for general circulation.  Any recommendation contained herein does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and the particular needs of any specific addressee. The information herein is published for the information of addressees only and is not to be taken in substitution for the exercise of judgement by addressees, who should obtain separate legal or financial advice. The Company, or any of its related companies or any individuals connected with the group accepts no liability for any direct, special, indirect, consequential, incidental damages or any other loss or damages of any kind arising from any use of the information herein (including any error, omission or misstatement herein, negligent or otherwise) or further communication thereof, even if the Company or any other person has been advised of the possibility thereof. The information herein is not to be construed as an offer or a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any securities, futures, options or other financial instruments or to provide any investment advice or services. The Company and its associates, their directors, officers and/or employees may have positions or other interests in, and may effect transactions in securities mentioned herein and may also perform or seek to perform broking, investment banking and other banking or financial services for these companies.  The information herein is not directed to, or intended for distribution to or use by, any person or entity that is a citizen or resident of or located in any locality, state, country, or other jurisdiction (including but not limited to citizens or residents of the United States of America) where such distribution, publication, availability or use would be contrary to law or regulation.  The information is not an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any security in any jurisdiction (including but not limited to the United States of America) where such an offer or solicitation would be contrary to law or regulation.

[#for Distribution in Singapore] This report is distributed in Singapore by DBS Bank Ltd (Company Regn. No. 196800306E) which is Exempt Financial Advisers as defined in the Financial Advisers Act and regulated by the Monetary Authority of Singapore. DBS Bank Ltd may distribute reports produced by its respective foreign entities, affiliates or other foreign research houses pursuant to an arrangement under Regulation 32C of the Financial Advisers Regulations. Where the report is distributed in Singapore to a person who is not an Accredited Investor, Expert Investor or an Institutional Investor, DBS Bank Ltd accepts legal responsibility for the contents of the report to such persons only to the extent required by law. Singapore recipients should contact DBS Bank Ltd at 65-6878-8888 for matters arising from, or in connection with the report.

DBS Bank Ltd., 12 Marina Boulevard, Marina Bay Financial Centre Tower 3, Singapore 018982. Tel: 65-6878-8888. Company Registration No. 196800306E.

DBS Bank Ltd., Hong Kong Branch, a company incorporated in Singapore with limited liability. 18th Floor, The Center, 99 Queen’s Road Central, Central, Hong Kong SAR.

DBS Bank (Hong Kong) Limited, a company incorporated in Hong Kong with limited liability.  11th Floor, The Center, 99 Queen’s Road Central, Central, Hong Kong SAR.

Virtual currencies are highly speculative digital "virtual commodities", and are not currencies. It is not a financial product approved by the Taiwan Financial Supervisory Commission, and the safeguards of the existing investor protection regime does not apply.  The prices of virtual currencies may fluctuate greatly, and the investment risk is high. Before engaging in such transactions, the investor should carefully assess the risks, and seek its own independent advice.