The Indonesian rupiah has faced a roller-coaster ride since August, rallying ~7% in the month, tracking the fall in the dollar index and widening ID-US rate differentials. Since reaching a high of 15100/ USD, the currency has weakened ~3.7%, given recovery in the global dollar. This has taken cumulative ytd performance to down 1.7%, erasing gains seen in second half of 2024. More choppiness is likely as markets parse through incoming US data and the pricing pendulum swings back in favour of incremental 25bp cut by the US next month rather than a consecutive 50bp reduction. BI’s active presence to ward off one-sided pressure on the unit in the past week and susceptibility to shifts in US market pricing lowers the likelihood of a back-to-back rate cut next week but keeps the door open for a cut later this quarter.
In the run-up to the new government’s inauguration in about ten days, there are indications that few of the existing cabinet members might be retained, batting for continuity. Nonetheless, plans to increase the size of the cabinet is likely on track, which has raised concerns over resultant operational, efficiency and cost implications. To recall, lawmakers had passed a revised law to remove a cap of 34 ministries, with signs from the incoming coalition that the number might be closer to 40-41. While finer details will be available post inauguration, markets will keenly watch for the Finance minister’s appointment, besides the likely growth and fiscal bent of the new administration.
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