Indonesia rates: 2025 Budget allays concerns for rupiah and bonds
Getting ready for a dovish pivot.
Group Research - Econs, Radhika Rao30 Aug 2024
Article image
Photo credit: Unsplash/Adobe Stock Photo
Read More

The FY25 Budget deficit target was set at 2.5% of GDP within the previously guided 2.4-2.8% range and below the 3% of GDP threshold. By extension, the bond issuance target is also pegged at a more manageable IDR 643trn, even if higher than the 2024 budget. Supply-demand dynamics for bonds are expected to be favourable, as domestic players have assumed a bigger portion of the demand mix in the last three years, lowering reliance on foreign investors. Investors will wait to see if the new government that assumes office in October revises any of these goalposts, in addition to the already included free lunch program disbursement worth 0.3% of GDP. Much focus will be on the capex allocations and intended subsidy reforms.

Separately, rupiah and IDR bonds have gained on the back of a slippery US dollar and correction in UST yields in the past fortnight. The currency briefly reacted negatively to widespread protests earlier in the month but has since stabilized as the House of Representatives aborted a controversial Local elections bill (related to an increase in thresholds for political parties and planned to defy a court’s ruling on the minimum age of candidates). Rupiah has nearly wiped out its year-to-date losses’ vs the dollar, a welcome relief for the central bank.

Shorter-tenor bonds are also benefiting from the prospect of rate cuts this year, besides signs that the issuance of BI bills (SRBIs) will be reduced further. Notably, SRBI awarded bids in August stood at IDR68trn, two-fifth of the amount sold in June-July, with the number of auctions also cut to 1x this month from previous 2x. A reversal in factors that were previously a drag on the IDR assets, i.e., emerging signs of relative fiscal prudence, rupiah appreciation, dollar inflows and a dovish US Fed, strengthens our view that the BI is likely to ready the ground for a dovish pivot in 4Q, following the US Fed’s much anticipated rate cut in September. With the cuts to start in 4Q24, we forecast a total of 100bp cuts, taking the rate to 5.25% by end-2025.


Radhika Rao

Senior Economist – Eurozone, India, Indonesia
[email protected]
 


Subscribe here to receive our economics & macro strategy materials.
To unsubscribe, please click here.

Topic

GENERAL DISCLOSURE/ DISCLAIMER (For Macroeconomics, Currencies, Interest Rates)

The information herein is published by DBS Bank Ltd and/or DBS Bank (Hong Kong) Limited (each and/or collectively, the “Company”). This report is intended for “Accredited Investors” and “Institutional Investors” (defined under the Financial Advisers Act and Securities and Futures Act of Singapore, and their subsidiary legislation), as well as “Professional Investors” (defined under the Securities and Futures Ordinance of Hong Kong) only. It is based on information obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but the Company does not make any representation or warranty, express or implied, as to its accuracy, completeness, timeliness or correctness for any particular purpose. Opinions expressed are subject to change without notice. This research is prepared for general circulation.  Any recommendation contained herein does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and the particular needs of any specific addressee. The information herein is published for the information of addressees only and is not to be taken in substitution for the exercise of judgement by addressees, who should obtain separate legal or financial advice. The Company, or any of its related companies or any individuals connected with the group accepts no liability for any direct, special, indirect, consequential, incidental damages or any other loss or damages of any kind arising from any use of the information herein (including any error, omission or misstatement herein, negligent or otherwise) or further communication thereof, even if the Company or any other person has been advised of the possibility thereof. The information herein is not to be construed as an offer or a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any securities, futures, options or other financial instruments or to provide any investment advice or services. The Company and its associates, their directors, officers and/or employees may have positions or other interests in, and may effect transactions in securities mentioned herein and may also perform or seek to perform broking, investment banking and other banking or financial services for these companies.  The information herein is not directed to, or intended for distribution to or use by, any person or entity that is a citizen or resident of or located in any locality, state, country, or other jurisdiction (including but not limited to citizens or residents of the United States of America) where such distribution, publication, availability or use would be contrary to law or regulation.  The information is not an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any security in any jurisdiction (including but not limited to the United States of America) where such an offer or solicitation would be contrary to law or regulation.

This report is distributed in Singapore by DBS Bank Ltd (Company Regn. No. 196800306E) which is Exempt Financial Advisers as defined in the Financial Advisers Act and regulated by the Monetary Authority of Singapore. DBS Bank Ltd may distribute reports produced by its respective foreign entities, affiliates or other foreign research houses pursuant to an arrangement under Regulation 32C of the Financial Advisers Regulations. Singapore recipients should contact DBS Bank Ltd at 65-6878-8888 for matters arising from, or in connection with the report.

DBS Bank Ltd., 12 Marina Boulevard, Marina Bay Financial Centre Tower 3, Singapore 018982. Tel: 65-6878-8888. Company Registration No. 196800306E. 

DBS Bank Ltd., Hong Kong Branch, a company incorporated in Singapore with limited liability.  18th Floor, The Center, 99 Queen’s Road Central, Central, Hong Kong SAR.

DBS Bank (Hong Kong) Limited, a company incorporated in Hong Kong with limited liability.  13th Floor One Island East, 18 Westlands Road, Quarry Bay, Hong Kong SAR

Virtual currencies are highly speculative digital "virtual commodities", and are not currencies. It is not a financial product approved by the Taiwan Financial Supervisory Commission, and the safeguards of the existing investor protection regime does not apply.  The prices of virtual currencies may fluctuate greatly, and the investment risk is high. Before engaging in such transactions, the investor should carefully assess the risks, and seek its own independent advice.