HKD rates: HIBORs movement in rate cut cycles
1M and 3M Hibors started to retreat.
Group Research - Econs, Samuel Tse2 Aug 2024
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1M and 3M HIBORs have started to retreat over the past week as seasonal dividend payment demand fades. Demand for HKD from the asset market also appears to be easing alongside the abating uptrend in the Hang Seng Index. In fact, the HSI has already returned to the 17,000 level after testing resistance at 19,500 in mid-May. The 30-day moving average of daily turnover also fell from a recent peak of HKD140bn to HKD100bn. If the HSI remains range-bound alongside weak CNY exchange rates, HKD rates should stay anchored. Externally, the build-up of Fed rate cut expectations is exerting downward pressure on HKD rates.

While HKD rates will likely stay below USD rates in 3Q, such receive opportunities against the USD may fade on entering the rate cut cycle. The relatively tight liquidity condition will limit the pace of retreat in HKD rates. It will take time for the Aggregate Balance to build up. During the 2007 rate cut cycle, the 3M HIBOR-Fed Fund Target Rate spread compressed from around -120bps to around -80 to -100bps during the initial cuts. The spread even turned positive during the rate cut cycle in 2019.



Samuel Tse 謝家曦

Economist - China & Hong Kong 經濟學家 - 中國及香港
[email protected]


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