India rates: Budget day and RBI’s neutral rate assumptions
Budget and RBI.
Group Research - Econs, Radhika Rao23 Jul 2024
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The Economic Survey for FY25 released on Monday (usually a day before the Budget – our preview) outlined a conservative view on growth at 6.5-7.0% vs RBI’s 7.2% (DBSf 7%). This implies that the underlying nominal GDP assumption of 10.5% is likely to be maintained in today’s Budget presentation. Separately, the survey emphasised on the need for macro prudence, calling for a reorientation of policies towards the agricultural sector, sought higher private sector participation and a rethink of the inflation targeting framework to focus on inflation ex food. There were no big-bang proposals, suggesting deficits and debt reduction would be in focus. Mirroring concerns raised by policymakers (highlighted the mismatch between deposit and credit growth) and the securities regulator in recent days, the Survey called for caution over the significant increase in retail investors in the equity markets, with regulators more focused on the derivative product options.

Separately, the RBI staff updated its natural interest rate framework to capture post-Covid trends, which revealed that the rate had drifted up to 1.4-1.9% vs earlier 0.8-1.0% due to a higher potential GDP growth rate. This theoretical framework is typically perceived as a gauge of the underlying policy stance, with this report implying in our view, that a stronger output trend belies the need for additional stimulus by way of rate cuts. After a firm June inflation, base effect driven slump in Jul-Aug is likely to be shallower than previously assumed. This poses upside risks to the RBI’s quarterly inflation forecast. Against this backdrop we expect a status quo on rates this year. Bond markets will take cues from today’s Budget announcements. Yields kickstarted the week on a softer note on inflows, but further downside was countered by an uptick in US yields. The centre has raised INR 4.53trn year-to-date, down ~17% yoy. Fiscal consolidation and a reduction in dated securities (vs budgeted INR14.1trn) is likely to prod 10Y yield to slip below 6.95%. USDINR meanwhile rose to a record high on broader USD index up-move, with the budget unlikely to materially impact the currency.

 

Radhika Rao

Senior Economist – Eurozone, India, Indonesia
[email protected]



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