Indonesia: Easing inflation but limited policy leeway
Currency matters more than inflation.
Group Research - Econs, Radhika Rao3 Jul 2024
Article image
Photo credit: Unsplash/Adobe Stock Photo
Read More

June inflation highlighted the quandary that Indonesia’s policymakers face. CPI inflation moderated to 2.5% yoy, declining on month-on-month terms and easing to the mid-point of the 1.5-3.5% target range. Moderation in the volatile segment, led by food costs, is helping the disinflationary process in Indonesia, with headline inflation at the mid-point of the target range. Volatile inflation eased to 6% yoy in Jun24 from 10% in Mar, while administered and energy segments were benign at 1.7% yoy and 0.1% yoy, respectively. Core has stayed below 2% since the start of the year. While the disinflationary path is conducive for policy, Bank Indonesia’s explicit FX stability mandate has driven its rate actions in the past year. The rupiah was amongst the worst performers in the region in June, stabilizing within the 16350-16450 range at the start of this week. Indications of a departure from a longstanding policy of fiscal conservatism has impacted sentiments on the currency, alongside propping IDR bond yields, and triggering portfolio outflows.

Assuaging markets’ concerns, current Finance Minister Mulyani reiterated the government’s commitment to a prudent policy and plans to keep deficits below 3% of GDP this year and next. Draft 2025 Budget is due to be tabled around mid-August. The incumbent team also clarified that IDR71trn (0.3% of 2023 nominal GDP) has been included into the deficit range proposed for the 2025 budget for the new President’s free lunch program and that the latter will be rolled out in phases over the coming years. This helped to calm nerves regarding a sharp reversal in the fiscal deficit calculations in the short term and helped to cap IDR slippage last week. We retain our baseline view for the status quo on policy rates this year but assign a small probability for hikes if pressure on the currency mounts anew.

Radhika Rao

Senior Economist – Eurozone, India, Indonesia
[email protected]
 


Subscribe here to receive our economics & macro strategy materials.
To unsubscribe, please click here.

Topic

GENERAL DISCLOSURE/ DISCLAIMER (For Macroeconomics, Currencies, Interest Rates)

The information herein is published by DBS Bank Ltd and/or DBS Bank (Hong Kong) Limited (each and/or collectively, the “Company”). This report is intended for “Accredited Investors” and “Institutional Investors” (defined under the Financial Advisers Act and Securities and Futures Act of Singapore, and their subsidiary legislation), as well as “Professional Investors” (defined under the Securities and Futures Ordinance of Hong Kong) only. It is based on information obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but the Company does not make any representation or warranty, express or implied, as to its accuracy, completeness, timeliness or correctness for any particular purpose. Opinions expressed are subject to change without notice. This research is prepared for general circulation.  Any recommendation contained herein does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and the particular needs of any specific addressee. The information herein is published for the information of addressees only and is not to be taken in substitution for the exercise of judgement by addressees, who should obtain separate legal or financial advice. The Company, or any of its related companies or any individuals connected with the group accepts no liability for any direct, special, indirect, consequential, incidental damages or any other loss or damages of any kind arising from any use of the information herein (including any error, omission or misstatement herein, negligent or otherwise) or further communication thereof, even if the Company or any other person has been advised of the possibility thereof. The information herein is not to be construed as an offer or a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any securities, futures, options or other financial instruments or to provide any investment advice or services. The Company and its associates, their directors, officers and/or employees may have positions or other interests in, and may effect transactions in securities mentioned herein and may also perform or seek to perform broking, investment banking and other banking or financial services for these companies.  The information herein is not directed to, or intended for distribution to or use by, any person or entity that is a citizen or resident of or located in any locality, state, country, or other jurisdiction (including but not limited to citizens or residents of the United States of America) where such distribution, publication, availability or use would be contrary to law or regulation.  The information is not an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any security in any jurisdiction (including but not limited to the United States of America) where such an offer or solicitation would be contrary to law or regulation.

This report is distributed in Singapore by DBS Bank Ltd (Company Regn. No. 196800306E) which is Exempt Financial Advisers as defined in the Financial Advisers Act and regulated by the Monetary Authority of Singapore. DBS Bank Ltd may distribute reports produced by its respective foreign entities, affiliates or other foreign research houses pursuant to an arrangement under Regulation 32C of the Financial Advisers Regulations. Singapore recipients should contact DBS Bank Ltd at 65-6878-8888 for matters arising from, or in connection with the report.

DBS Bank Ltd., 12 Marina Boulevard, Marina Bay Financial Centre Tower 3, Singapore 018982. Tel: 65-6878-8888. Company Registration No. 196800306E. 

DBS Bank Ltd., Hong Kong Branch, a company incorporated in Singapore with limited liability.  18th Floor, The Center, 99 Queen’s Road Central, Central, Hong Kong SAR.

DBS Bank (Hong Kong) Limited, a company incorporated in Hong Kong with limited liability.  13th Floor One Island East, 18 Westlands Road, Quarry Bay, Hong Kong SAR

Virtual currencies are highly speculative digital "virtual commodities", and are not currencies. It is not a financial product approved by the Taiwan Financial Supervisory Commission, and the safeguards of the existing investor protection regime does not apply.  The prices of virtual currencies may fluctuate greatly, and the investment risk is high. Before engaging in such transactions, the investor should carefully assess the risks, and seek its own independent advice.