German elections on February 23 runs the risk of yielding a fragmented Bundestag (federal parliament), posing a challenge to form a stable government and hurting an already insipid economic outlook. Elections will be held after a snap vote was called by Chancellor Olaf Scholz late last year, when his coalition government fell apart. Most opinion polls put the conservatives (CDU/CSU) in the lead, increasing the chance for their candidate Friedrich Merz to be named as the next Chancellor. Two aspects will be watched closely. First is the formation of the government. Politico’s poll of polls shows 29% of the respondents back the CDU/CSU camp, short of a majority. A coalition is usually necessary to go past the 50% of the seats in the parliament, pointing to a potential deadlock. A relatively favourable outcome would be a coalition with SPD, but this group might be marked by policy differences. Secondly, the far-right AfD party has expanded its presence, emerging as the second most popular party, with 21% of the poll of polls. While mainstream parties have rejected cooperation with the AfD to form the next government, its strong showing might undermine investor confidence. Besides being a staunch defender of public borrowing limits, AfD has called for stricter measures on immigration and wants the country to stop using the euro.
Immigration, state of the economy and the bloc’s role in geopolitics, mainly Ukraine, are few of the key themes for voters at this juncture. The political quagmire comes at a difficult time for Germany and the Eurozone, amidst stagnant recovery, slow growth in key trading partners and rising challenges from US tariffs. Previously, the Bundesbank had warned that expanded US protectionism could keep the export-led German economy in recession. Reform of the constitutionally enshrined debt brake in Germany is also a central issue, with an increase in public expenditure seen as an avenue to boost domestic growth. Views of the political parties differ on this aspect. Europe is also grappling with a shift in the US’ course on NATO, as the new administration cast doubts over its longstanding security assurance provided to the bloc. Financial markets are likely to watch this election outcome with trepidation, which together with the likelihood that the ECB will ease rates more than the US Fed this year, likely to keep downside pressure on the Euro this quarter and next.
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