- Forecasts of a hot and dry European summer in 2024 will boost higher beer consumption as people spend more time outdoors, contrasting with last year’s dampened sales due to unusually wet weather
- Major sporting events to boost beer consumption and raise awareness of non-alcoholic beer
- Upcoming Paris Olympics to feature non-alcoholic beer for the first time, providing a great platform to increase adoption of the new beer category
- Brewers with greater exposure to Europe to see outsized sales uplift in 2024 in anticipation of higher beer demand from the region
Related Insights
- Heineken’s (HEIN NA) reported volume growth of 1.6% y/y
- Aneheuser-Busch InBev (ABI BB) indicated mid-single digit growth
- Carlsberg (CARLB DC) saw its Western Europe sales up by 0.2% y/y, while its Central and Eastern Europe and India volumes were up 2.2%
- Asahi’s (2502 JP) sales volume was also up by 0.8% in Europe (matching that of Japan) which outperformed its Oceania region which dipped by 9.3% y/y
Unlike 2023 where European sales were dampened by wet weather, forecasts of a hotter, drier summer, coupled with major sporting events, are expected to boost outdoor social activities and beer consumption this year. This has led to major breweries expressing optimism for their sales outlook.
Major sporting events poised to boost beer sales and raise global awareness of non-alcoholic beers. Historical trends suggest that beer sales volume tends to increase during major sporting events. We expect this pattern to hold true this year and drive an uplift in sales. The UEFA Euro 2024 tournament in Germany is expected to significantly boost European sales given soccer's popularity and beer's status as the go-to beverage for match viewing.
Meanwhile, the upcoming Olympics Games in Paris will feature non-alcoholic beer for the first time ever. Indeed, ABI’s alcohol-free Corona Cero has signed on to be the Worldwide Olympic Partner for three Olympic games starting with Paris in 2024. With an estimated viewership of over 3bn, the Olympics provides a unique platform to elevate non-alcoholic beer in consumers' minds and accelerate the adoption of this emerging beer category.
According to industry players, non-alcoholic beer shares in the US and Europe are at c.1% and c.5%, respectively, and with increased investment and focus lie growth opportunities ahead. Similarly, Heineken has also shared its optimism in alcohol-free beer where its Heineken 0.0 has been a growth driver for the brand.
Brewers with greater exposure to Europe to experience better uplift in sales. Given anticipated increase in demand due to favourable weather conditions and major sporting events, the beer industry in Europe is expected to experience a sales uplift. Consequently, companies with higher European exposure (Heineken and Asahi with 39% and 25% of 2023 sales revenue from Europe, respectively) are well-positioned to benefit from increased sales volumes in the region.
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