Equities Weekly: ASEAN Equities – Compelling Growth Story
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Chief Investment Office26 Jun 2024
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ASEAN equities: Compelling growth story. In an increasingly multi-polar world where supply chains are fragmented and geographic diversification more critical for investments than ever, ASEAN continues to demonstrate potential as a strategic economic bloc. The region is resource-rich and boasts diverse sectors with relatively lower costs of labour and connects well with global supply chains. Despite a lacklustre start to the year, we anticipate several re-rating catalysts to be supportive of investing in ASEAN in the near term.

Recent data indicates that the US economy is heading towards a soft-landing scenario, prompting an upgrade in our US GDP growth forecast to 2%. Given that the US is a major export destination for ASEAN economies, a US soft-landing will counteract relatively slower demand from China. Historically, the performance of China equities has been a leading indicator for ASEAN equities. Since its low in late January this year, the Hang Seng Index has gained c.7.3% YTD – similarly, ASEAN equities have rebounded remarkably. Underpinned by favourable demographics and room for further productivity, growth prospects of the region are promising.

Investors would do well by gaining exposure to ASEAN markets in view of its intact fundamentals, attractive valuations, and bottoming currencies which should rebound on the back of China’s ongoing recovery. This includes select exposure to ASEAN tourism via retail and hospitality REITS; Thailand tourism plays such as airport operators, retail, and healthcare providers; China+1 strategy beneficiaries such as Vietnam; industrial property developers in Thailand; and commodity players in Indonesia. We like ASEAN banks as proxies to tap on resilient economic growth. Meanwhile, we remain confident in small and mid-cap exposure in India.

Equity fund flows: Upbeat flows.
With impending elections in France and the UK weighing on investor appetite for Europe, funds were mostly channeled to US and global Equity Funds. The week ended 21 June saw flows into US Equity Funds climb to a 14-week high while Europe Equity Funds registered their 48th outflow in the past year, and Japan Equity Funds snapped their five-week redemption streak. In emerging markets, India Equity Funds attracted inflows for the 66th consecutive week, while domestically domiciled China Equity Funds saw fresh funds.


Figure 1: Hong Kong’s Hang Seng China Enterprises Index and ASEAN index moving in tandem


Source: LSEG Datastream, DBS


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