Trump tariff risks and Asian winners and losers
Winners and losers post-Trump.
Group Research - Econs, Chang Wei Liang14 Nov 2024
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Tariff risks under Trump Presidency 2.0 have emerged as a major concern for FX markets, in turn bolstering the USD. Major currencies have all fallen by over 2% since Trump’s election win, except for the CAD which slipped by a relatively meagre 1.2%. This is likely due to Canada having signed the USMCA trade agreement under the first Trump presidency and is thus seen to be least at risk to new US tariffs. CAD may be the only safe haven in such circumstances, with even MXN facing some non-trade related risks related to immigration and remittances.

Within Asia, THB and MYR have seen the sharpest falls of over 2.5%, while IDR and INR have outperformed Asian peers, with losses of under 0.4%. As with major currencies, Asian currency relative performance reflects the degree of vulnerability to Trump tariffs. Thailand and Malaysia are small, open economies dependent on external trade, while Indonesia and India are more domestic demand driven, and are thus perceived by investors to be relatively more resilient to tariff threats compared to Asian peers.

With China having been singled out by Trump to face exceptional broad-based tariffs, could RMB become the largest loser? The answer is no.  Our China economics team estimated that even in the worst-case scenario of an immediate 60% tariffs on all Chinese exports to the US, the impact on Chinese growth would still be manageable at under 1% of GDP. Thus, acute RMB depreciation is not economically necessary, while potentially adding risks to financial stability. Everything considered, it is likely that the PBOC chooses to anchor RMB expectations by leaning against the wind. This could be done through the setting of stronger CNY fixings (as was the case yesterday), as well as through other administrative measures. We do not expect RMB weakness against the USD to be disproportionately larger compared to Asian peers.

Chang Wei Liang

FX & Credit Strategist
[email protected]

 

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