USD slippage and JPY intervention risks
JPY intervention risks with rising short positioning.
Group Research - Econs, Chang Wei Liang4 Jul 2024
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The services-driven expansion in the US is now slowing and starting to weigh on the USD. Overnight, the US ISM services index fell to 48.8 for June, marking its lowest read since May 2020. The services employment subindex also missed expectations at 46.1, marking a 5th consecutive month of contraction. Non-farm payrolls this Friday would be important to assess if job creation is starting to slow materially as well, given that job growth was previously led by services. DXY has eased back towards 105 but remains elevated, and there are risks of further slippage if NFP data disappoints. FOMC minutes for the June meeting indicate that Fed officials expect subdued growth over the remainder of the year. Lesser concerns over inflation going forward could raise speculation of rate cuts and pressure the USD.

USD/JPY has crept higher to mid-161 levels, with the move being orderly and not triggering any new rhetoric from Japanese officials. Still, we think the sharp extent of JPY weakness is a concern, and do not think that intervention is off the table. Officials are likely watching for signs of excessive one-way positioning before choosing to act. Speculative short positioning has risen in the last two weeks and may be getting close to the level seen in end-April, when MOF intervened. Thin liquidity conditions today with the US out on holiday is another reason to be cautious on intervention, and more so if USD/JPY bumps above 162. This week, the Q2 Tankan survey showed that Japanese large manufacturers are seeing an improving outlook, which should underpin confidence in further policy normalization by the BOJ.

USD/CNH is trading slightly above 7.30, supported by the PBOC’s further relaxation of the onshore CNY fixing as we expected. The USD/CNY fixing has moved above 7.13 yesterday for the first time since November. It is not accurate to say that the RMB has weakened broadly, given that most currencies have depreciated more against the USD than the RMB.  We consider the fixing change as a minor adjustment amid USD strength, while also serving as an insurance against further trade tensions. While the official China manufacturing PMI is still in contraction, the Caixin manufacturing PMI came in at an encouraging 51.8 for June this week, signifying a private sector that is making progress in its recovery despite tariff threats.

Chang Wei Liang

FX & Credit Strategist
[email protected]


 

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4 July in history

In 1947, the "Indian Independence Bill" was presented before the British House of Commons, proposing the independence of the Provinces of British India into two sovereign countries: India and Pakistan.







 
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