The Indian government named Revenue Secretary Sanjay Malhotra as the new RBI Governor for a three-year term, to replace incumbent Governor Shaktikanta Das whose terms ends on Tuesday. Outgoing Governor Das, who stayed in office for two consecutive three-year terms, steered the economy’s financial system through the challenging pandemic period, tackling the subsequent spurt in inflation by tightening policy and liquidity conditions. Under his watch, the central bank not only successfully unwound Covid-area support measures but also undertook pre-emptive macroprudential measures more recently to rein in loan market excesses. An active presence in the currency markets kept a lid on rupee volatility, while foreign reserves rose to record highs. Incoming Governor Malhotra, a career bureaucrat, previously held the post of secretary in the financial services department and has overseen various areas of taxation, fiscal policy, and budget formulation. His work experience also covered financial/ banking reforms and sectors like power, and information technology, over the past three decades.
The new Governor takes office at an important juncture for the economy, as a divergence in the growth and inflation path has put policymakers in a tough spot (read our RBI meeting review here). Past appointments from the Finance Ministry to the RBI’s office have displayed independence and a quick adoption to the RBI’s institutional course of thinking, acting subject to their forward-looking view on price stability. The monetary policy committee (MPC), nonetheless, is on course for a reset after three new external members joined in October (read here), followed by a new Governor’s appointment now and a policy-hawk Deputy Governor Patra’s term ending in January. For now, markets are likely to take the new appointment as dovish, raising the probability of a cut at the February policy meet. Between now and the next rate meeting in February, the new Governor’s views on liquidity, currency management and macroprudential measures will be watched closely. The country’s external balances are on a stable footing, with an adroit hand required to safeguard domestic defences in the face of a likely increase in global uncertainties next year.
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