KRW rates: Accelerated rate cuts
BOK rates to drop to our 2.50% target earlier in 2Q25.
Group Research - Econs, Ma Tieying29 Nov 2024
Article image
Photo credit: Unsplash/Adobe Stock Photo
Read More

The Bank of Korea (BOK) cut the base rate by 25bps to 3.00% at its November 28 meeting, marking the second cut in the current easing cycle following a similar move in October.

The timing of the rate cut came earlier than expected. Just a month ago, at the October meeting, the BOK had signalled a gradual approach to monetary easing. The recent inflation stabilisation and the intensifying downward pressure on economic growth were cited as the key reasons for this earlier-than-anticipated rate reduction. During its quarterly economic assessment, the BOK revised down its GDP forecasts for 2024 and 2025 by 0.2ppt each, to 2.2% and 1.9%, respectively. The central bank also lowered its inflation projections for the same years by 0.2ppt, bringing the 2024 forecast to 2.3% and 2025 to 1.9%.

The direction of monetary easing is not surprising. We have been anticipating rate cuts in 2H24 since the start of the year and have forecasted further cuts in 2025. The rapid easing of inflation – driven by subdued oil prices and weak demand – creates ample room for the BOK to lower the nominal rate and adopt a neutral policy stance. While domestic demand has remained weak for some time, external uncertainties, such as tariff threats and trade protectionism under a Trump administration, add new risks to growth via the export channel. South Korea is the US’s 6th largest import partner, while the US is South Korea’s second largest export market, accounting for 18% of total exports. South Korea renegotiated the KORUS FTA during Trump’s first term, making concessions to import more cars from the US and granting greater access for US automakers in South Korea. In Trump’s second term, threats of higher tariffs on China and universal tariffs on all countries could have both direct and indirect effects on South Korea’s exports.

We have slightly adjusted our BOK rate forecast trajectory. The terminal rate of the current easing cycle is still expected to reach 2.50%, just above the projected inflation rate of 2% in 2025. As the pace of rate cuts accelerates, we now expect this terminal rate to be reached by 2Q25, instead of 3Q25. The next 25bps cut is expected to occur at the January policy meeting.

Ma Tieying 馬鐵英, CFA

Senior Economist - Japan, South Korea, & Taiwan 經濟學家 - 日本, 南韓及台灣
[email protected]

 


Subscribe here to receive our economics & macro strategy materials.
To unsubscribe, please click here.

Topic

GENERAL DISCLOSURE/ DISCLAIMER (For Macroeconomics, Currencies, Interest Rates)

GENERAL DISCLOSURE/ DISCLAIMER (For Macroeconomics, Currencies, Interest Rates)

The information herein is published by DBS Bank Ltd and/or DBS Bank (Hong Kong) Limited (each and/or collectively, the “Company”). It is based on information obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but the Company does not make any representation or warranty, express or implied, as to its accuracy, completeness, timeliness or correctness for any particular purpose. Opinions expressed are subject to change without notice. This research is prepared for general circulation.  Any recommendation contained herein does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and the particular needs of any specific addressee. The information herein is published for the information of addressees only and is not to be taken in substitution for the exercise of judgement by addressees, who should obtain separate legal or financial advice. The Company, or any of its related companies or any individuals connected with the group accepts no liability for any direct, special, indirect, consequential, incidental damages or any other loss or damages of any kind arising from any use of the information herein (including any error, omission or misstatement herein, negligent or otherwise) or further communication thereof, even if the Company or any other person has been advised of the possibility thereof. The information herein is not to be construed as an offer or a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any securities, futures, options or other financial instruments or to provide any investment advice or services. The Company and its associates, their directors, officers and/or employees may have positions or other interests in, and may effect transactions in securities mentioned herein and may also perform or seek to perform broking, investment banking and other banking or financial services for these companies.  The information herein is not directed to, or intended for distribution to or use by, any person or entity that is a citizen or resident of or located in any locality, state, country, or other jurisdiction (including but not limited to citizens or residents of the United States of America) where such distribution, publication, availability or use would be contrary to law or regulation.  The information is not an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any security in any jurisdiction (including but not limited to the United States of America) where such an offer or solicitation would be contrary to law or regulation.

[#for Distribution in Singapore] This report is distributed in Singapore by DBS Bank Ltd (Company Regn. No. 196800306E) which is Exempt Financial Advisers as defined in the Financial Advisers Act and regulated by the Monetary Authority of Singapore. DBS Bank Ltd may distribute reports produced by its respective foreign entities, affiliates or other foreign research houses pursuant to an arrangement under Regulation 32C of the Financial Advisers Regulations. Where the report is distributed in Singapore to a person who is not an Accredited Investor, Expert Investor or an Institutional Investor, DBS Bank Ltd accepts legal responsibility for the contents of the report to such persons only to the extent required by law. Singapore recipients should contact DBS Bank Ltd at 65-6878-8888 for matters arising from, or in connection with the report.

DBS Bank Ltd., 12 Marina Boulevard, Marina Bay Financial Centre Tower 3, Singapore 018982. Tel: 65-6878-8888. Company Registration No. 196800306E.

DBS Bank Ltd., Hong Kong Branch, a company incorporated in Singapore with limited liability. 18th Floor, The Center, 99 Queen’s Road Central, Central, Hong Kong SAR.

DBS Bank (Hong Kong) Limited, a company incorporated in Hong Kong with limited liability.  11th Floor, The Center, 99 Queen’s Road Central, Central, Hong Kong SAR.

Virtual currencies are highly speculative digital "virtual commodities", and are not currencies. It is not a financial product approved by the Taiwan Financial Supervisory Commission, and the safeguards of the existing investor protection regime does not apply.  The prices of virtual currencies may fluctuate greatly, and the investment risk is high. Before engaging in such transactions, the investor should carefully assess the risks, and seek its own independent advice.