KRW Rates: October rate cut likely
BOK signals October cut.
Group Research - Econs, Ma Tieying23 Aug 2024
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The Bank of Korea (BOK) held its policy rate steady at 3.50% during its August 22 meeting, revising its growth and inflation forecasts for 2024 to 2.4% (down from 2.5%) and 2.5% (down from 2.6%), respectively. In its statement, the BOK expressed confidence that inflation will converge with the target level and indicated it will consider the appropriate timing for rate cuts. Meanwhile, the board dropped the previous commitment to maintain a restrictive monetary policy “for a sufficient period”. Furthermore, the governor disclosed that 4 out of 7 board members are open to a rate cut within the next three months.

A more pronounced inflation slowdown is expected to prompt a 25bps rate cut at the BOK’s October meeting. As of July, CPI and core CPI have declined to 2.6% and 2.2% YoY, respectively, with MoM growth rates averaging 0.1%-0.2% over the past five months. We expect CPI and core CPI to converge with the 2% target starting in August. The anticipated Fed rate cut at the September FOMC meeting will also create a more favorable environment for the BOK. Expectations of Fed rate cuts have helped USD/KRW return to the 1300-1350 range, easing imported inflation and reducing concerns about capital outflows.

The BOK is hesitant to implement early or aggressive rate cuts primarily due to concerns over housing prices and household debt. Seoul’s housing prices have increased by 0.2% on a week-on-week basis since mid-July, and banks’ housing mortgage loans grew by 7.5% YoY in July. However, nationwide housing prices have remained stagnant, and banks’ total loans to the household sector increased by only 4.9% YoY. We believe that the partial rebound in housing prices and household debt should be managed through targeted measures rather than monetary policy. We maintain our forecast of a gradual 25bps reduction per quarter, bringing the benchmark rate down to 3.25% by end-2024 and to 2.50% by end-2025.

Ma Tieying 馬鐵英, CFA

Senior Economist - Japan, South Korea, & Taiwan 經濟學家 - 日本, 南韓及台灣
[email protected]




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