India markets: RBI eases loan curbs ahead of growth report, soft rupee
RBI relaxes lending curbs.
Group Research - Econs, Radhika Rao28 Feb 2025
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Today’s numbers for Oct-Dec24 are likely to show headline real GDP growth returning above 6% yoy from 5.4% in 3Q and average 1H24 of 7.2%. A catch-up in government capex spending, passage of idiosyncratic factors including unfavourable weather, better kharif crop output, festive demand, and factory production should lift 4Q24 (3QFY25) output. This is counterweighed by an absence of pick-up in corporate profitability and service sector activity, signaled by slowing credit growth and moderation in GST collections. We are mindful of revision to past data, which can materially change the quarterly growth profile, including the first half of FY25 (see India: Growth uptick likely, tariff turbulence ahead). 

The central bank eased the requirement for banks to set aside additional risk weights on loans to NBFCs with effect from April 1, “(over and above the risk weight associated with the given external rating) in all cases where the extant risk weight as per external rating of NBFCs was below 100%” as per the official press release. Risk weights on MFIs for consumer credit is also set to return to prior weight. To recall, the RBI had undertaken macroprudential measures in November 2023 to restrain consumer lending to banks and non-banks, following which loan growth to NBFCs corrected sharply. Liquidity has also been tight in the domestic banking system amidst softer demand, compounding the downshift. Amidst signs of a cyclical slowdown, we note a coordinated effort to make conditions more conducive in recent weeks, including the 25bp rate cut, liquidity steps, postponement of the new liquidity coverage ratio norms as well as a delay in proposed regulations on project financing. Lower risk weights will support capital adequacy levels, freeing up space for banks to lend onward, most likely to better-rated non-bank institutions (improve funding access and lower borrowing costs for the latter) once policy transmission improves. 

On the markets front, foreign equity portfolio outflows and regional portfolio rotation continues to dampen domestic stock indices even as the index is partly propped by strong retail participation. In the region, ASEAN bourses including Thailand, Indonesia and Philippine stock indices fare worse than India’s, in red on local currency as well as dollar terms YTD. While the global dollar is treading water, the rupee has maintained a weakening bias, testing past 87.30 this week (regional underperformer on ytd basis). DBS FX Strategist maintains that the markets are underestimating tariff risks, expecting the dollar to stay firm this quarter and next (by extension biased for a weaker rupee) – see the FX section for details. 


Radhika Rao

Senior Economist – Eurozone, India, Indonesia
[email protected]



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