The DXY surged by 0.6% overnight to break 107, following Trump’s confirmation that 25% tariffs on Canada and Mexico will take effect on March 4. He further added that China will face an additional 10% tariff on that date, on top of the 10% imposed this month. Both CAD and MXN fell against the USD, but their decline is not significantly larger in magnitude compared to other currencies. Trump’s inconsistent messaging on the timing of tariff implementation and conditionalities around them have made markets more reluctant to position aggressively to these threats. But should the tariff hikes come through, the USD is likely to strengthen further.
US equities are not taking renewed tariff threats on Canada and Mexico well, given extensive supply chains that criss-cross North America. The S&P500 has fallen 1.6% overnight and is now showing a year-to-date loss. Increased risk aversion due to tariffs has hit the risk-sensitive NZD (-1.2%) and AUD (-1.1%) the most, while JPY (-0.3%) and CHF (-0.5%) are the most resilient. JPY and CHF relative outperformance could sustain with more unwind in carry trades, due to the elevated uncertainty around Trump’s tariffs.
China’s National People Congress (NPC) annual meeting next week could see policymakers underscore a commitment to keep the RMB stable, on top of signalling a further easing in financing conditions. USD/CNH has rallied to 7.30 on the back of Trump tariff risks, and markets will be keenly looking out for any NPC announcements to counter a softening in external demand and arrest RMB risks. Meanwhile, China is also planning an injection of up to CNY1trn of capital into its largest banks, funded mainly by the issuance of new special sovereign bonds. This should help boost lending volumes that are being weighed by uncertainty over loan quality.
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February 26 in history
The first Gulf War ended in 1991.
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