US PPI important today amid Ukraine-related volatility
US inflation more important, Ukraine issue early days.
Group Research - Econs, Philip Wee13 Feb 2025
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The DXY Index initially surged to 108.52 on higher-than-expected US CPI inflation. Headline inflation increased by 0.5% MoM in January instead of slowing to 0.3% consensus from 0.4% in December. Excluding food and energy prices, core inflation doubled to 0.2% MoM from 0.2%. During his semi-annual testimony to the House Financial Committee, Fed Chair Jerome Powell said the Fed would respond to the higher inflation print by keeping monetary policy restrictive for now

Powell added that today’s PPI data would shed some light on PCE inflation. Like CPI, consensus also expects PPI and core inflation to be sticky at 0.3% MoM in January. Powell said the dot plot was not a forward guidance, which may fuel expectations for the Fed to reduce further this year’s rate cut projections in the upcoming March Summary of Economic Projections. After the Fed’s third rate cut in December, the Fed reduced its projections to two cuts from four cuts. The US Treasury 10Y yield rose overnight by 8.6 bps to 4.62%, its highest level since January 24. The futures market is pricing in only one cut in July this year. 

However, the DXY plunged to 107.63 in hopes of an early end to the Russia-Ukraine war following a surprise phone call between US President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin. The news sent the EUR/USD, which initially fell to 1.0317 on the stronger-than-expected US CPI print, higher to 1.0430. However, as reality sets in, EUR/USD returned below 1.04 to 1.0385. Brussels will likely oppose negotiations without Europe, maintaining that Ukraine’s independence and territorial integrity were non-negotiable. European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen had described Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and Trump’s potential tariffs on the EU with the same word – unlawful. Apart from saddling the EU with a larger defence bill, Trump’s plan could boost far-right movements in the bloc. Germany’s federal elections on February 23 will serve as an early test. 

DXY ended the overnight unchanged, near Tuesday’s closing level just below 108. Not everyone believed the higher US CPI inflation was due to seasonal factors. One-year inflation expectations spiked in the University of Michigan’s consumer survey, driven by Trump’s plans on universal tariffs, extension of tax cuts, and mass deportation of illegal migrants. Once again, keep an eye on today’s US PPI data and watch for Ukraine-related volatility.


Quote of the Day
“In politics, stupidity is not a handicap.”
     Napoleon Bonaparte

February 13 in history
Tycho Brahe first sketched the “Tychonic system” of the solar system in 1578.

 




Philip Wee

Senior FX Strategist - G3 & Asia
[email protected]

 

 
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