Rise in popularity of weight-loss drugs due to simple usage and high efficacy. Obesity, often defined as having a body mass index (BMI) of over 30, affects c.650mn patients globally. The current weight-loss drug market is a duopoly dominated by Novo Nordisk (NOVOB DC) and Eli Lilly (LLY US). In 2021, Novo Nordisk launched Wegovy, its first glucagon-like peptide-1 (GLP-1) receptor agonist for treatment of obesity. GLP-1 drugs work by activating the GLP-1 receptor which inhibits appetite, effectively leading to weight loss. Wegovy skyrocketed in popularity, generating USD4.5bn in sales in FY23 and is expected to bring in USD13.0bn in FY25F, according to estimates by Visible Alpha. In 2023, Eli Lilly launched Zepbound, its first dual glucose-dependent insulinotropic polypeptide/glucagon-like peptide-1 receptor co-agonist (GIP/GLP-1). GIP/GLP-1 drugs work by blocking the GIP receptor (which leads to less fat storage) and activating the GLP-1 receptor (which inhibits appetite), leading to weight loss. Zepbound brought in USD176mn in FY23 and is expected to bring in USD11.3bn in FY25F, according to estimates by Visible Alpha.
Breakthrough in weight-loss drugs industry. Wegovy and Zepbound are both small-molecule drugs injected weekly, reducing body weight by 14.9% in 68 weeks and 13.6% in 52 weeks, respectively. The breakthrough comes in the form of MariTide by Amgen (AMGN US) which is a large-molecule drug injected monthly, reducing body weight by 14.5% in 12 weeks, significantly sooner than Wegovy and Zepbound. Its molecular size is 31-36x larger than that of Wegovy and Zepbound, which allows it to stay in the human body longer, resulting in less frequent injections. We expected Amgen to start phase 3 clinical trials in early 2025, with interim results expected to be released in 2H25 on indications such as obesity, type 2 diabetes, cardiovascular disease, and chronic kidney disease. The data is expected to be positive, as Amgen has axed R&D of other weight-loss drugs to focus on MariTide.
Other companies developing biologic GLP-1 drugs will benefit as well. Apart from Amgen, Sino Biopharmaceutical is the only company globally developing a biologic weight-loss drug (GMA106) with a formula similar to that of MariTide (GIP/GLP-1). Amgen’s share price surged 12% in one day when it reported positive Phase 2 interim data. Phase 2 clinical data is expected in 4Q24. The positive clinical data of MariTide will raise market confidence in its mechanism which could spill over to the GMA106 drug. Visible Alpha estimates GMA106 will generate sales of USD54-493mn in 2028F-30F, equivalent to 1-13% of 23A sales.
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